RSSBaseball’s Disappearing Trade Deadline
Jul 25
A few nights ago, I had a dream that the Red Sox made a trading deadline deal to bring Nomar Garciaparra back to Boston to be a fourth outfielder and role player. In the dream, I was pretty excited by the news and really intrigued by the drama of that compelling storyline, especially after we missed out on the “Roger Clemens returns to Boston to finish where he started” earlier this season. Instead, we got the “Roger Clemens goes back to New York for $1 million per start where he already won two rings and pitched for five whole years” story, which was rather anticlimactic.
But, the Nomar deal probably isn’t going to happen. And neither will a hundred exciting viable trades I can imagine where superstars switch teams midseason blockbuster exchanges. When I was younger, I remember the excitement of the days leading up to July 31st, wondering which stars would move, always knowing there would be something shocking as we closed in on the 4:00pm deadline. But, these days, the biggest question I have is whether the Red Sox will get a better hitter for their bench or maybe another middle reliever, or if the Yankees will bring in a first baseman. The biggest name on the market is Texas Rangers Mark Texeira, a pretty good power hitter who hasn’t quite reached his potential. But, in this era, he’s the cream of the crop. It’s not exactly the stuff of a Hollywood movie plot anymore, is it?
In the 1980′s, some of the excitement was the thrill of seeing a star player in a new uniform, which was something of a novelty before players leapt from city to city every couple of years. While became more commonplace over time, the flurry of trades surrounding the end of July still packed drama and almost never disappointed. That is, until the advent of the Wild Card in Major League Baseball. Since the mid-1990′s, the playoff races have gotten a boost from the inclusion of two additional playoff spots. There has been an amazing amount of enthusiasm about how many teams remain in the playoff mix until the final days of the season and it truly has exponentially increased the number of meaningful games played around the country in September. But, with more teams contending, fewer teams are prepared to give up on their playoff hopes by the end of July. So, here we are, less than a week from the deadline and there are only about half a dozen teams out of thirty who consider their season lost and are prepared to sell off veteran or valuable parts. To filter out more genuine buyers and definite sellers and diminish the pile of indecisive .500 teams, they ought to push the non-waiver deadline back into mid-August, when perhaps more teams will be willing to admit where they stand with only 45 games to play.
The other major contributor to the decline in blockbuster deadline trades, though less publicized in this respect, is the dramatic rise in salaries and increase in long-term contracts, which has made a huge comeback in the past couple of years. In terms of July trades, huge salaries act twofold against the likelihood of interesting deals. Salaries for underperforming or otherwise available stars are so large and many payrolls are already bursting that fewer teams are willing to part with hot prospects and take on large financial burdens. And in the age of bloated paychecks, prized prospects themselves become ever more valuable for their first three years of major league service during which they can be paid at or near the league minimum (which, at nearly $400,000, is still a salary I would consider playing for.) We end up with general managers who would genuinely like to upgrade their rosters, but few stars or impact players are available and those that are available are expensive and often have vastly underperformed (otherwise, why would they be available in the first place?) And with such limited supply, the teams who are selling off parts get greedy and expect too much in return. So, the game often ends as a washout. Everyone gives up on significant trades and they settle for making underwhelming exchanges of AAA pitchers and backup infielders. That’s just how the trading deadline tends to be in this era. The cost of veterans is higher, the value of inexpensive production is higher, and in the end, I guess I have to accept that there’s little chance the Red Sox will pull off that Joel Piniero and Wily Mo Pena for Ken Griffey Jr. deal I’ve been hoping for all year.
More Notes from the Cheap Seats
Trades I hope will happen but definitely won’t
With the Houston Astros more than a dozen games out of first place (and without Roger Clemens to the rescue this year!) I would love to see them accept reality that the team’s long-term prospects are in doubt and they need to retool the entire roster. I live in hope that they will put Roy Oswalt up for bids. If that ever happened, every GM in the league would line up to hand over the very best their minor league systems have produced. In my dreams, the Red Sox could get him for a combination of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, one of our solid minor league outfielders, and maybe Manny Delcarmen. It’s wishful thinking. To have any chance, we’d have to part with our best-known prospects. More likely? The Yankees would get him for Phil Hughes and a couple of Steinbrenner’s bags of money.
Maybe it’s my dream that sparked it, or maybe it’s just pointless nostalgia for the 2004 team, but part of me thinks that it wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world for the Red Sox to make a swap with the Orioles to bring back Kevin Millar for the rest of the 2007 season. For as much as I didn’t mind it when he left, right now he looks like he could be a viable bat off the bench for a team that has struggled to score runs far more than they expected (due in part to a lingering David Ortiz injury.) Millar’s stats aren’t overwhelming but he has a little power and could be a better outfield sub than Wily Mo Strikeout, I mean Pena, who seems so awkward it’s like he’s Tom Hanks’ character in Big, a 10 year old boy who suddenly finds himself in a big body.
The absolute top fantasy is that the Minnesota Twins suddenly decide they can’t afford to resign Johan Santana and they think they’ll get more for him this year in July than next (he’s eligible for free agency after next season.) I’d line up my top five best prospects and offer them on bended knee to Minnesota in the hopes of landing the best lefthander in the league. He is having an off year by his standards, but Santana would instantly be the ace of any pitching staff. I picture a 2008 rotation with Santana, Josh Beckett, Dice-K, Jon Lester, and a healthy Curt Schilling. Now we’re talking!
