Nov 26
JonathanSports baseball, MLB, Red Sox
Question: Who is the team to beat in Major League Baseball next season? Any chance we see Tampa Bay and/or the Phillies back in the playoffs?
Answer: The team to beat in Major League Baseball is, at this moment, the Philadelphia Phillies. But, the good news for those of us outside Pennsylvania is that the label applies to the World Series champion only during the time between the final out of the Series and first major player acquisition of the winter hot stove season. It’s like the title “Most Powerful Man in the World.” It only applies to the President of the United States while in office. After that, all bets are off.
And here’s the real story -- We’ll get a real and true “team to beat” for 2009 over the next 6 weeks. By the time the ball drops on Times Square, most trades and signings of significance will be done and we’ll have a sense of which rosters got better, which got worse, and which don’t matter at all.
But, if I could look into my crystal ball, I’d say that by spring training we’ll be talking about the New York Yankees having completely restocked their big league roster with trades and signings. Going into their new stadium, they’ll spare no expense. So, just like every year since the mid-1990′s, experts will predict the Yankees to return to form and claim the AL East -- and trendy followers will believe the Rays will duplicate their magical 2008 and either take the East or get the Wild Card.
Realistically, as the season actually gets played, we’ll also be talking about the Red Sox, Angels, and Cubs. In short -- the “teams to beat” will really be the same ones we always think are the teams to beat. Those teams will have the most impressive rosters on paper and the most experience navigating the treacherous attrition of the 162 game season. Them and one or two shocking teams that made a big signing or two (Kansas City Royals in ’09!!!).
And when it all shakes out, the Rays will be a big disappointment, the Red Sox and Angels will irritate everyone by continuing to win, and the Mets will lose their final 25 games in a row and finish one game out of the Wild Card, with newly signed outfielder Manny Ramirez tripping on his shoelace in the 9th inning, allowing both the tying and winning runs to score.
Nov 23
JonathanSports baseball, Red Sox
Question: Should the Sox resign ‘Tek?
Answer: Yes. And I’ll go one further -- they should pay what it takes to get him signed. Of course, please note that I say, pay what it “takes,” not pay what slimeball Scott Boras “asks.” Most of the fans despise Boras and are sick of his politician-like lies and half-truths and ridiculous expectations. And worse, that he often gets what he asks for (and then rolls around gleefully in his money while we spit at our computer screens). But, that’s not the central point in this case. The point with Jason Varitek is pretty simple: There’s no one out there that can do a better job in 2009 or 2010 catching for the Boston Red Sox.
So, will it require giving him a much higher salary than he might otherwise be offered (like $10 million a year instead of $4 million)? Yes. Will it require giving him a third year, when we don’t know if he’ll be hitting over .200 or playing in more than 80 games by then? Probably. But, while we all fall victim to the emotion of saying, “just forget it, I’m sick of dealing with all this drama for a guy who can’t hit anymore,” all the yahoos who call sports radio can’t answer the most obvious follow-up question: Then, who catches?
There are several free agents that will cost a few bucks less and produce at somewhat comparable offensive levels to Varitek’s ’08 season, and may even do a better job throwing out runners. But, is that really worth all the uncertainty? Varitek is battle-tested playing in Boston, penetratingly knowledgeable both of all the Sox pitchers and nearly every single American League hitter, a fiercely loved leader in the clubhouse, and tough as nails. For whatever you might save in the near term to get someone new -- and let’s remember, it doesn’t matter what his salary is, ticket prices have no connection whatsoever to the team’s payroll -- it will cost you far more in unanticipated consequences.
Sign Varitek, and realize that it is truly A Wonderful Life. You just don’t realize how grim the alternative is in a world without Tek
Aug 15
JonathanSports baseball, Red Sox
I’ve been quite glad not to hear the legendary arrogance and pomposity, but equally sad not to see Pedro Martinez pitch so far in the 2007 season. Occasionally popping up in a news story mentioning how great he was doing as he rehabilitated his surgically repaired right shoulder, Pedro has been missing from a New York Mets team that greatly needs a dominant starting pitcher. The five starters most often deployed by the Mets this year (Tom Glavine, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Orlando Hernandez, and Jorge Sosa) have all done fine, but none has stepped up and claimed a firm position at the top of the rotation. That role has slipped to Glavine, the league’s newest and possibly last 300 game-winner, by default. The Mets need someone to step forward and anchor a team that, while it holds a small lead in the NL East, has floundered and stagnated for months, allowing both the Braves and the Phillies to remain in the hunt for the division title. They’re in need of a boost, an emotional lift, a catalyst. If they’re looking to Pedro Martinez to be that man in September, they’re going to be disappointed.
On the increasingly controversial resume of Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, the non-re-signing of Martinez falls squarely and loudly in the positive column. When Red Sox fans screamed and hollered after Theo let the temperamental pitcher sign with the Mets, who offered an additional guaranteed year, and replaced him in the rotation with Matt Clement (who slams down equally hard on the other side of the see-saw as a negative for Theo,) Theo knew what most weren’t ready to accept: Pedro isn’t Pedro anymore. Injury and mileage have irrevocably changed him as a pitcher. Now, in the third year of a 4 year, $53 million contract, he’s won only 9 games since the end of 2005. After putting up solid numbers in the junior varsity world of the NL that season, the wheels came off last year and he required surgery that has cost him the rest of that year as well as his entire 2007 campaign to date.
Truthfully, Pedro wasn’t even really himself throughout most of 2004, logging a career high (before his 4.48 in 2006) 3.90 ERA, but he came up big when the playoffs arrived. In Boston, we got so spoiled from his glory days that we remember him beginning to deteriorate back in 2003 with his velocity and consistency. On paper, though, he was 14-4 with a 2.22 ERA and over 200 strikeouts. If that’s a drop-off, it only shows how far up he had been. From 1998 through 2002, he was the best the AL has seen since the late 1980s version of Roger Clemens and no one has been better since. Johan Santana puts in a good challenge, but Pedro was an astounding 87-24 during those five years, logging a high ERA of 2.89 in 1998. His 1.74 ERA in 2000 sounds mythical against the backdrop of 2007, where any ERA below 4.00 is seen as all-star caliber. Pedro limped over the 200 win plateau in late 2006 and now sits 2 strikeouts shy of the elite 3,000 mark. If he never wins another game, he is worthy of the Hall of Fame. His dominance from 1997 through 2003 rivals that of any pitcher in history over a similar stretch except for Sandy Koufax’s legendary run from 1962-1966, during which he was 111-34 with an ERA just over 2.00.
But as Martinez attempts to return, at age 35, from surgery, having already gone from a flamethrower with a 97 mile per hour fastball to a deceptive veteran topping out at 91, the early returns are not promising. On Tuesday, Pedro pitched in his second rehab start, giving up 3 runs in 5 innings for the Mets’ rookie ball team. His previous start was similarly discouraging. As a matter of perspective, many of the hitters in rookie ball were playing on high-school diamonds and finishing their U.S. History classes 90 days ago. And this Tuesday, they beat up on a three-time Cy Young award winner. It’s already mid-August and there appears to be a longer road ahead of Pedro than he had hoped in his quest to return to the big stage and playoff baseball. The Mets would be well-served to look elsewhere for their emotional lift.
Pedro Martinez may be back in the big leagues in 2008 and he may very well put together a solid season, but chances are that he will never look like the pitcher we knew five or ten years ago. As is often the case with power pitchers, the “twilight” is never very bright (Roger Clemens being the blinding exception,) though they fight against it fastball after fastball. So while I rooted hard against “Pedro the Punk” in ’05 and ’06, I’m sorry to see him struggle to return this year. I pop in my 2004 Red Sox World Series DVD and I can’t help feeling the nostalgia and a little bit of love for Pedro. As he fights his own body to return, I admit that I’m rooting for the old man, albeit with the sound turned way down, just in case he talks.
More Notes from the Cheap Seats
The other loudmouth returning from injury is Boston’s own Curt Schilling. After a month and a half of resting and strengthening his shoulder, Curt dominated minor league hitters in his 3 rehab starts, shutting out the opposition in 15 strong innings, reaching 94 mph on the radar guns. Someone must have been trying to help his confidence with those radar readings because Schilling was regularly around 89-91 in his first start back with the Red Sox, a 6 plus inning performance against the Angels. He pitched well and had surrendered only 2 runs after six innings. Terry Francona, going through a managerial slump of late, sent him back out for the 7th where he surrendered two more runs and took the loss. In his second start back, he gave up only a single unearned run in another 6 innings. He looks solid so far, but his velocity still leaves room for concern.
One loudmouth who won’t be returning from injury this year is Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Randy Johnson. After struggling with his back injury and inconsistent performances (that included several disabled list visits,) Johnson had season-ending back surgery last month. He finished 4-3 for the 2007 season and is unsure if he will be able to return in 2008. This one ends up as a brilliant move by the Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman in unloading Johnson before the season. At 284 career wins, he stands as the only plausible candidate among current pitchers to reach the 300 win mark. The current consensus among sports reporters is that he won’t be able to return to health long enough to win those final 16 games. Which means that he probably will.
The permanently injured loudmouth who won’t go away has finally broken Hank Aaron’s home run record. Barry Bonds limped over the finish line last week and currently stands at 758 homers, playing mostly every other day. Most of us are glad we can finally go back to ignoring him, but it’s impossible to ignore the sadness at the loss of 755 as the magical record. Now, he’ll start blaming the media for not paying enough attention to him after years of the opposite. How can you not fall in love with a guy who’s always angry and not happy unless he’s unhappy?
Apr 18
JonathanSports baseball, Boston, Red Sox
A week ago, the Boston Red Sox returned home to Fenway Park for their home opener. They obliterated the Seattle Mariners in their first home game of the season, 14-3. But, interestingly, the opener wasn’t the most anticipated game of that series. That distinction was reserved for the Fenway debut of Daisuke Matsuzaka, squaring off against the Mariners and fellow countryman Ichiro Suzuki.
And while the story of this game was supposed to be the premier Japanese matchup of all-time, the focus was stolen. The Red Sox ran into a buzzsaw in 20 year old pitching phenom Felix Hernandez. To watch him pitch that night was to cower in the fear of ever having to face him again. He was brilliant, throwing a 95 mile per hour fastball with sharp movement, mixing in devastating breaking pitches. The Sox were lucky to get their one hit. Matsuzaka pitched fine. Not great, but not bad. Unfortunately, it was nowhere near good enough that night. But, for all my concern about the Red Sox this year, they responded to the 3-0 loss last Wednesday by turning that around and blowing the Los Angeles Angels out of the rapidly falling water.
When the Angels lifted off to leave Boston on Monday night, they must have scarcely known what hit them. On Friday the 13th, Tim Wakefield kicked off the Angels’ bad luck by throwing 7 strong innings and allowing only a single run. Though the game was close into the 8th (Jonathan Papelbon got two impressive outs in the top of the 8th to preserve the 3 run lead at the time), the Sox exploded for 6 in the 8th and finished off a 10-1 win. On Saturday, a dominating Curt Schilling threw 8 strong innings on the way to an 8-0 shutout. After a rainout on Sunday, Josh Beckett shut down the Angels’ offense en route to a 7-2 victory. In all, it was a 3 game sweep with a combined score of 25-3. In all, the homestand included 5 wins and a single loss, the hometown team outscoring Seattle and Los Angeles (Anaheim) 39-9.
It’s true that the Angels didn’t play their best baseball, but the Sox pitching is on a roll. The top 4 starters have ERAs of 1.38, 1.50, 2.70, and 2.84. Despite two hard-luck losses for Matsuzaka, including Tuesday night in Toronto, the rotation looks impressive. And though the offense has run hot and cold, at least David Ortiz looks to be on track after 2 homers and 8 RBI in the Angels’ series. Manny is next. But, in a division that is going to come down to whose pitching stays the healthiest, the Sox, even with two 40-year-olds in the rotation, are in the early lead. Four Yankees starters are currently on the shelf (Wang, Mussina, Pavano, and Karstens) and the Blue Jays just lost their closer, B.J. Ryan, for at least a month.
Now we get to find out if the Boston buzzsaw is for real. The Red Sox play AL East opponents for the remainder of the month of April, including two series with Toronto and two with New York. We’ll see what is for real in the next two weeks because the Sox might be running ahead in early pitching health, but Toronto still has a powerhouse lineup, even with some injuries, and the Yankees have one of the best lineups of all time. The Sox are going to need all five starters at their best. If they can get those kinds of performances, they might leave April with not only the healthiest pitching staff, but a healthy lead in the AL East.
More Notes from the Cheap Seats
If the current salary climate for big league pitching lasts, Tim Wakefield‘s current contract might turn out to be one of the greatest of the era. Before last year, Tim decided that he wanted to stay in Boston for as many years as he has left in his knuckle-balling right arm. He signed an unusual deal where after each season the Red Sox have an option to pick up a fresh one-year deal for $4 million. Judging by how long successful knuckballers like Wake can pitch and what $4 million buys you on the open market these days (the answer is a mediocre middle reliever), if Wakefield continues to pitch like he has so far this year, he will be one fantastic value for several more years. And the Sox could really use some good value, especially if they want to save their pennies to lure Roger Clemens back to Boston.
After struggling with the long ball and inconsistency last season, Josh Beckett has looked like the guy the Red Sox thought they were trading for in late 2005. Considering that they gave up Hanley Ramirez, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, and Anibal Sanchez, who threw a no-hitter last season, they really need him to live up to the expectations. At 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA, he’s been working in more curveballs and following Jason Varitek’s lead on pitch-calling. Curt Schilling is on record saying that watching Beckett now is “watching a special time in what will be a special career.” Though it was doubtful all last year, if he can keep improving, it may turn out that his contract extension, for 4 years at $10 million per year, may look like a serious bargain come 2009 and 2010.
It would be hard to consider any pitcher a bargain at $13 million. But, Curt Schilling is a borderline Hall of Famer and has never shied away from taking the ball in the most pressure-packed situations. Every team that wants to contend for a championship needs at least one big-game pitcher and Curt of the Bloody Sock is definitely that. After back to back excellent performances, his opening day implosion has already been forgotten. If Red Light (nicknamed for his love of any open microphone) can keep the media from obsessing about his contract situation (he’s a free agent at the end of the year after the Red Sox declined his offer to re-up for another season at the same salary), with his impressive preparation, he’s got a good shot to keep his status as the ace of the staff
Mar 14
JonathanSports baseball, Red Sox, Spring Training
Each and every spring training, there are fantastic and inspiring stories about players battling back from terrible situations and illnesses. This year, Jon Lester returns to the Red Sox after a brief bout with cancer. There is an annual parade of pitchers who return to the mound after missing significant time for Tommy John surgery. Too many to list, but this year’s crop is headed by Mike Hampton. And each town has its own feel-good story about an unknown player who has battled odds and clawed his way to the major leagues. I think the Boston representative at this year’s conference is probably Davern Hansack. But, despite the warm weather, the overwhelming optimism, and the exuberance of March baseball, each year also brings several careers to their close in less than glamorous circumstances.
In the hierarchy of retirement scenarios, the best of the best get to decide every detail of how their careers end. Legends like Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn, and Carl Yastrzemski announced the news well in advance of the end of their final seasons and then basked in the accolades that followed. Standing ovations awaited them at every stadium. The warmth of fan admiration washed over them in appreciation of their achievements. Next down the food chain are the players who announce the decision at the end of the season. Maybe they weren’t sure during the year, maybe their statistics were in decline, maybe their bodies are just too sore by October to go through it all again. There’s still time for press coverage and attention and fawning articles in the hometown paper. And maybe they get to throw out a first pitch before a game the next season and get the standing ovation then. Of course, there’s an asterisk after this group for Roger Clemens who announced his retirement during the 2003 year, got his ovations at stadiums nationwide, and then proceeded to pitch for (at least) three more years. But, unless this starts becoming more common, we’ll just leave Roger alone on this one. Which leads us to the final group, the unfortunate ones who end up either announcing their retirement during spring training or never really announcing it at all.
When a career ends during spring training, there’s no way to avoid the thought that it smacks of failure. The news this Monday night that the Rockies had released Javy Lopez reminded me of this sadder part of spring. Here’s a guy who was an offensive force as a catcher and an integral part of the Braves’ post-season run for nearly a decade. This very well might be the end for him, unable to make the roster of a team that won 76 games last season. And earlier this spring, Keith Foulke retired before ever throwing a single pitch for the Cleveland Indians. Though a surly guy and a complete enigma, he is a former star who really should be remembered as a legend for his curse-breaking performance in the 2004 season and post-season for the Red Sox. But, he’s going down as another injured failure of 2007. Last year, we lost definite Hall of Famer (in my opinion) Jeff Bagwell when his shoulder just couldn’t make it through another season (he officially announced retirement in December 2006, but he was done when he couldn’t make it through spring a year ago). We also lost possible Hall of Famer and the inaugural big-name steroid bust Rafael Palmeiro in 2006 when no one would touch him with a 10 foot pole and he simply failed to get a contract offer.
But, the most gut-wrenching story of 2007 is that of Bernie Williams. And I grant you, this one’s not really over yet, but it doesn’t look promising. After 16 years, 4 World Championships, hundreds of big hits (seriously, whenever he would come up against the Sox in a big situation, I just knew he was going to kill us), and endless class, the Yankees didn’t guarantee him a job this spring. They invited him to camp on a minor league non-guaranteed contract and Bernie said no thanks. There is still a chance that he changes his mind or if there are more injuries to the Yankees they may upgrade their offer, but the most likely scenario is that Bernie ends up retiring because he doesn’t want to play anywhere else. After such a dignified career as one of the leaders of this most recent rise of the evil empire, it’s unfortunate that Bernie likely won’t get to take those victory laps and retire on his own terms.
With so many great players whose bodies or skills give out on them sooner than they’d hoped, this time of year becomes a changing of the guard. And I’m old enough now that players I watched come up as prospects and rookies are now breaking down and retiring. By now, most teams know who will make their rosters and when we really start paying close attention in a few weeks, we may notice some names are missing. It takes just a little bit of the sunshine and flowers out of spring training that everyone is getting older and not everyone can make it to April. Or we might just not notice.
More Notes from the Cheap Seats
Jeremy Burnitz retired on March 11th after failing to get any contract offers this off-season. He bounced around a lot in his career, but hit 30 home runs in a season 5 times and finished with over 300 for his career. He was a premier power hitter at the end of the 1990′s and ends his career after 14 seasons in the majors.
Brian Jordan, turning 40 years old in 2 weeks, has also failed to get himself a contract for 2007 so far. He hasn’t produced much in the past several years, but he was an exciting player to watch in St. Louis and Atlanta from the mid 1990′s through 2001. He may be best known for carrying on the Bo Jackson tradition playing in both the NFL and Major Leagues. He was a rising football star when he gave it up to try for a longer career in baseball. He won’t be going to the Hall of Fame, but he drove in 100 runs in a season twice and compiled more than 1,400 hits. As far as I know, he hasn’t announced his retirement, but once March has passed, the likelihood of a phone call coming to his agent gets very slim.
*On the other end is Curt Schilling, who seemed poised to spend 2007 basking in those standing ovations after previously announcing this would be his last season. Quite definitively, if my memory is correct. But, now, as you may have heard, Curt may continue to pitch until 2015. He says he’s talked it over with his family and everyone agrees that Curt should pitch beyond this year. And frankly, I agree. If he’s still got what he’s had for the past decade, he’s better than most big league pitchers, even at 40 years old. But, the drama escalated when the Red Sox chose not to take him up on his public offer to sign a one year extension for 2008 at his 2007 salary. Another brilliant strategic decision by Theo Epstein? Or another horrific blunder when it comes to the pitching staff? Funny, at this point, Theo seems to be known for both.
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